The 2022–23 NBA season kicked off for my hometown Chicago Bulls on October 19th against the Heat, and DeMar DeRozan provided a vintage 2021–22 performance in the Bulls’ win. He poured in 37 points in 36 minutes, shot 63% from the field and even hit 67% of his 3-point attempts. That’s a big deal because DeRozan is not a big 3-point shooter and mostly does his damage from inside the 3-point line and from mid-range jumpers.
The gripe against the Bulls last year is that they relied much too often on DeRozan to bail them out in close games. Many analysts have them pinned as a team that will almost certainly regress this season and the ability of DeRozan to carry such a big load for the Bulls is a key factor. He wasn’t exactly playing hero ball for the Bulls last season, but he was, at times, the Bulls’ most reliable scorer who could create his own shot. What’s different about DeRozan than some other premier scorers in the NBA is that he’s a mid-range guy and pretty much operates closer to the basket than other guards his size.
More and more teams are jacking up three pointers. A 3 point bucket is obviously more than 2 points, so a 3-point shot is more valuable than a 2-pointer. It’s a similar line of thinking in baseball, where hitters are concentrating on elevating the ball when they’re at the plate— a line drive or fly ball is more likely to result in an extra base hit or a home run, which is more valuable to a team than a measly single. Many basketball players have adapted to the changing game, with more big men stepping back behind the arc and adding a shooting element that makes defenses think twice about leaving them alone away from the basket. Nikola Vucevic is the Bulls’ own big man 3-point marksman. But some players haven’t added a dagger 3 to their game, but haven’t paid the price. DeRozan is one of them.
DeRozan has steadfastly stuck to his mid-range game while many other players step back behind the arc to jack up threes. Take a look at this chart from his 2021–22 season.
The vast majority of his shots come within the 3-point arc and many are at the elbows of the paint or at the top of the free throw line. That’s really where his sweet spot was last year. Here’s his shot chart from the game against the Miami Heat:
Most of his shots are inside the arc. He did knock down 2 of his 3-point attempts, though. He took a couple of corner threes (a valuable 3-point shot) but a good chunk of his shots came from mid-range areas of the floor, close to the paint and free throw line.
Here’s the shot zone chart for his made field goal attempts:
This is only 1 game out of a remaining 81, but it doesn’t seem like DeRozan will be changing up his game any time soon. He’s found a sweet spot in the 16–24 foot jump shot range and as long he keeps hitting those shots and getting to the free throw line, he’ll be doing enough to keep the Bulls competitive. What will be interesting to see is how teams guard against DeRozan’s mid-range game. It’s no secret that he won’t be killing teams from beyond the 3-point line. But give him enough space and he’ll hit the 18-foot jumper. Play him tight and he’ll drive and get to the free throw line.
Props to the below GitHub people for publishing their code! This is what I used for reference.