Unfortunately I missed updating the League 2 predictions for last week, but luckily I’m mostly caught up heading into the matches this weekend. Judging from the results, there were some dominating performances from FG Rovers, Leyton Orient and Exeter City. Can these squads keep the momentum going heading into this week?
Factoring last week’s results into the model, I updated every team’s Attack & Defense ratings. There’s a sizable number of teams that struggle on the defense, while the teams in the upper right quadrant (let’s call it Quad 1) are the teams that have done consistently well throughout this season.
Next I wanted to take a look at the relationship so far this season between teams’ goal differential and points. What I expect to see is that the teams at the top of the table have a strong relationship between those two variables. FG Rovers is right there with a +10 goal differential and 19 points so far this season. Leyton Orient and Harrogate have the same number of points but Orient outpaces them in the Goal Differential category by a 5 goal margin.
Let’s get into expected goal predictions for this week’s matches. One game I’ll be very interested in is the FG Rovers v Tranmere Rovers match. FG Rovers come into the game with the league’s most powerful attack rating while Tranmere has the league’s best defense rating. Tranmere might not score on you, but they’re certainly stingy on the defense.
And here are the Win/Draw/Loss probabilities for this week’s games.
There’s a bunch of exciting games this weekend and I’m interested to see how these predictions play out.
