Week 7 is in the books for EFL League 2 so it’s time to take a look at how well the model did in predicting the outcomes of the games. Here’s a refresher of last week’s predictions:
Week team1 team2 p1 pd p2
7 Harrogate Newport County 0.8406572 0.10230971 0.05703306
7 Barrow Colchester Utd 0.3809036 0.37547852 0.24361788
7 Hartlepool Utd Bristol Rovers 0.7731559 0.14006616 0.08677790
7 FG Rovers Northampton 0.3734309 0.26558364 0.36098543
7 Salford City Bradford City 0.4151681 0.24203398 0.34279794
7 Walsall Mansfield Town 0.2752443 0.29040866 0.43434703
7 Swindon Town Port Vale 0.3844762 0.36360530 0.25191849
7 Leyton Orient Oldham Athletic 0.8816356 0.08977042 0.02859397
7 Sutton United Stevenage 0.2438464 0.28356433 0.47258927
7 Crawley Town Carlisle United 0.1545770 0.25975977 0.58566326
7 Scunthorpe Utd Exeter City 0.1737945 0.38807100 0.43813449
7 Rochdale Tranmere Rovers 0.3669877 0.46331830 0.16969396And here are Week 7’s results:
Wk Home HomeGoals Away AwayGoals
7 Harrogate 2 Newport County 2
7 Barrow 2 Colchester Utd 3
7 Hartlepool Utd 1 Bristol Rovers 0
7 FG Rovers 1 Northampton 0
7 Salford City 1 Bradford City 0
7 Walsall 3 Mansfield Town 1
7 Swindon Town 1 Port Vale 2
7 Leyton Orient 4 Oldham Athletic 0
7 Crawley Town 2 Carlisle United 1
7 Sutton United 2 Stevenage 1
7 Rochdale 1 Tranmere Rovers 0
7 Scunthorpe Utd 0 Exeter City 4Newport County pulled off a veritable upset by fighting to a draw with Harrogate, while Colchester beat the odds by coming away with a win against Barrow. Overall Model Score = 6/12 (50%).
Here’s updated Attack / Defense ratings going into Week 8:
There’s two games this afternoon in EFL League 2 between Northampton and Newport County and Sutton United against Hartlepool United. Here are the expected goal predictions and the Win/Loss probability for the fixtures this afternoon.
Home Away expg1 expg2
Newport County Northampton 0.8046815 0.792829
Sutton United Hartlepool Utd 0.9189308 1.629827Home Away HomeWin Draw AwayWin
Newport County Northampton 0.3265738 0.3536401 0.3197861
Sutton United Hartlepool Utd 0.2120393 0.2471287 0.5408320
Newport County and Northampton have extremely close expected goals for this match and the likely outcome is a draw between the two sides. In the Sutton v. Hartlepool match, Hartlepool is expected to score just over 1.5 goals and has a 54% probability of winning today.
The rest of the league’s games are this coming Saturday, so later this week I’ll come back to check on the results of today’s games and predict how the rest of the weekend will shake out.
